Phillies Fan in Pittsburgh

I got the opportunity to go to all three games of the Phillies-Pirates series in Pittsburgh last weekend, and I wrote a fan report for The 700 Level. You can check it out here.

I Love LA (Whenever I Don't Hate It)

Though I've cooked up a title that would be great for a Larry Andersen lovefest someday, it's just that time of year when I must return to the West Coast. Commentary from afar is kind of neat, especially when the games end before 8 PM, but it's tough not being able to watch the games (the Phillies at least; the Eagles get surprisingly decent coverage). Considering the first two months of this blog's history, the Baker Bowl expects to spend some time on a handful of non-Philly pieces in the not-too-distant future. That being said, don't be surprised if the Baker Bowl goes dark until reliable internet access can be secured. (Read: at least a 1-2 week hiatus)

I do have time for last hurrah--I'll be attending the Kendrick/Billingsley match-up on the Phils' last day at Chavez Ravine on Wednesday. After being there for a Dodgers-Giants game, I think I've seen Dodgers fans at their most intense...and they don't scare me. Unless they are tall, muscular Mexicans.

But I really do wish Dodgers-Phillies still meant something. It's one of the most underrated rivalries in baseball--the death struggles for the NL pennant in the late 1970s, Tommy Lasorda's feud with the Phillie Phanatic, this incredible comeback with a bunch of names I'm too giddy over to even type here (ok, just a couple: Dale Murphy on the Phils! Juan Samuel on the Dodgers!). I'm not sure if you can call it a rivalry anymore, but weird or unique or emotional moments tend to happen when these two clubs get together. If nothing else, it's a chance to see our beloved Mike Lieberthal again, as the odds are good that he'll start a 12 PM day game after a 7 PM night game.

And then I'll boo him. Duty calls.

Meet Me Halfway, Wes Helms

Around this time of year, a lot of people like to fete baseball's best and brightest with fake half-season awards. And while there seems to be a consensus about the Phils' respective MVP (Utley) and Cy Young (Hamels) whom, I wonder, is the real "First Half Phillie"?

I don't mean the player who has contributed the most to the team in the first half; rather, it's the player most symbolic of the 2007 Phillies up to this point. That is, which player best embodies the whole experience of the team's first 88 games?

Pat Burrell, with his all-or-nothing approach to batting and penchant for disappointment, is an obvious contender for this and any year. Brett Myers' schizoid season--from starter to closer to the DL--and massive stroke of bad luck also seem like a good fit.

I humbly nominate an overlooked component of this years Fightins: occasional third baseman Wes Helms.

He's a name you know but don't necessarily trust. He had a terrible start to the year despite batting .284 in April, then .218 in May and .200 in June, and didn't hit a home run until June 13. He seemed to turn it on again right before the All-Star Break, though no matter how high he ultimately flies, everyone is waiting for him to crash right back down to earth. And he's getting paid over $2 million to be mediocre.

In other words, Wes Helms is the personification of the frustration, streakiness, and inconsistency of your Philadelphia Phillies. Just when you're ready to give up on him, he gives you a reason to believe in him. It's a maddening a trait players seem to acquire only when they get to Philly (Helms hit .329 in 140 games with the Teal Bastards last year).

Projecting a Helmsian mediocrity for the rest of this season, I'd say the Phillies will achieve somewhere between 83-86 wins, and put us out of our misery by early September. No more stringing us along until the last weekend of the season, ok guys?

One problem: that pitiable sum might be enough to win the division (according to PECOTA).

You gotta believe?

At Long Last, 10,000 Losses

We did it!

At 12:16 AM EST on Sunday, July 8, 2007, Wes Helms strikes out swinging on a Manny Corpas pitch, and the Colorado Rockies defeat the Philadelphia Phillies by a score of 6-3. Jamie Moyer, the poor soul, is the losing pitcher.

Few situations could have been more fitting for the 10,000th franchise loss: on a horrendous road trip, with a lead surrendered by a bullpen sinking faster than the Lusitania, with an offensive output concentrated entirely on early home runs, to a franchise that has done almost nothing of consequence in its 14 years of existence. The early tease and the subsequent roll-over (in this game as well as Friday night's) were almost poetic. It's as if the team had finally realized their fatalistic mission and set out to dispose of it as quickly and as thoroughly as possible.

It would have been better only if Pat Burrell had struck out looking at a fastball on the inside corner to end the game. Otherwise, it's a perfectly obscure ending to a perfectly obscure milestone.

Here's to the next 10,000. Let's hope they sprinkle in a few more W's this time around.

You Know It's the Phillies When...

...they lose 2 out of 3 to the Royals after sweeping the Mets on the road.

...the very worst team in the major leagues beats them by 12 runs.

...Ryan Howard homers twice--one in each loss.

...they're still just 5 games out of first in the NL East.

These symptoms of inconsistency are so pervasive that the only thing everyone--fans, players, the national media--expects the Phillies to do consistently is...be inconsistent. It's telling when a preseason World Series dark horse dangerously close to collapsing under the weight of expectations and bullpen hubris isn't even a noteworthy story. I guess Kansas City has got to hear some good news every once in a while, but the failure of the Phillies to realize their full potential has become a tired old yarn.

On the bright side, Liebs finally gave Philadelphia its first shutout of the season after they suffered their first one on the losing end to the Giants a week earlier--a great way to kick off the Second Jose Mesa Era.

Still, it was a brutal weekend and dangerously close to being this season's nadir if it weren't for the Manuel-Eskin Deathmatch in April. A series this momentous deserves its own special name:

"Willie Wilson's Revenge"

Seriously, These Guys Can Hit

The Phillies are once again within sniffing distance of .500 after a spectacular comeback win against the Brewers tonight--mostly thanks to Derrick Turnbow, a former Philadelphia prospect who was famously the first MLB player caught doing steroids. If anyone's counting, that's the second 6-run, late-inning rally in the past three games. Where are the "Everybody Hits!" people when you need them?

This should not be happening. The Phils are historically on the business end of such rallies. But to do this to the Cubs, a team that's better than their record suggests, and the Brewers, arguably the hottest team in baseball? It's a strange new feeling. I honestly don't know what to say, so I'm going to post this picture of Von Hayes falling down and hope it will return me to a normal mental state.


That's better. But it should be against the law to put a photo like that on a man's baseball card.

A Sneak Peak At Tomorrow's Phillies Lineup

Insights on building a Major League lineup from the desk of Charlie Manuel, who has used a different lineup every day for the past seven days:

1. Freddy Garcia, P
- Just to shake things up a bit

2. Pat Burrell, LF
- Remember to substitute Michael Bourn as a pinch runner in the 6th so he can strike out with the bases loaded in the 8th

3. Chase Utley, 2B
- Gee, this Sharpie smells so nice, I almost can't hear Pretty Boy begging for a day off

4. Jim Thome, DH

Whoops, just went on autopilot for a second there.

4. Jimmy Rollins, SS
- A projected 56 HRs? To cleanup you go!

5. The Phillie Phanatic, RF
- Need a widebody masher in the five-hole; wonder if his strike zone will be too big though; his physique reminds me of someone familiar

6. Greg Dobbs, 1B
- Ryan needs to regain his confidence by sitting on the bench next to Chris Coste; plus his name rhymes with "Hobbs" and The Natural was a sweet movie

7. Wesbraham Nunelms, 3B
- Football coaches get to make "game time decisions," why can't I? (Also: talk to Gillick about creating a new starting pitcher from the combined DNA of Charles Nagy and Bartolo Colon)

8. Carlos Ruiz, C
- Barajas played last night, right?

9. Aaron Rowand, CF
- My baseball instincts tell me he's in for a slump, but he kind of looks like that Ali G guy, so I can't bench him

Reminder: clutch the dugout fence and grit your teeth extra-hard tonight. We're on ESPN, after all.

Phillies Notes: Ryan Howard, Baseball Diva

While scouring YouTube for some more Andrew Bird videos, I learned that Ryan Howard was a guest on David Letterman's show earlier this month. How this slipped by me I'll never know, but for now I'll blame my roomie's preference for watching the depressing, hollow shell of a man that used to be Jay Leno.

Now, in light of everything written about Big Ry this spring, check out this video of Jimmy Rollins and Howard arriving at the show:



I'm sure his phone call was very important. Maybe it was a holla from Jared the Subway Guy.

- Just when I start bitching about lineups, Laid-Back Charlie throws this doozy at me. Rowand leading off? J-Roll in the Bobby Abreu Position? Wes Helms at first?

The inmates are truly running the asylum, because it's hard to tell what anyone's roles are anymore. Carlos Ruiz and Rod Barajas (despite attending the School of Hitting) seem to switch off every day. Whenever Jayson Werth gets playing time, he shows he's just as capable as Pat Burrell, or at least Shane Victorino. And no matter who gets called to pitch the 9th inning, it's always a headache. Your latest victim: Antonio Alfonseca.

- Speaking of losing, there's still plenty of time to enter the official "Baker Bowl Road to 10K" pool. The magic number is now 30 losses and counting. The rules are at the end of this post.

I should also clarify that I really do have the Nomar bobblehead--my fee for temporary Dodger fanhood services rendered, namely booing the shit out of Barry Bonds. Because he's just rude.

Phillies Notes: It's Clobberin' Time!

Jimmy Rollins is once again all alone as your National League leader in home runs after today's blowout win against the Astros. What's more, he was only a double away from the cycle.

The Phillies are doing all sorts of interesting things lately. They turned a triple play against the Reds on Saturday, which I forgot to mention before. Chase Utley hit a ball into Ashburn Alley. Unconfirmed reports state that Adam Eaton struck out 7, but the Baker Bowl's factual accuracy department is investigating the possibility of a hoax.

Furthermore, this was technically the rescheduled third game of last weekend's 3-game series. So the Phillies have pulled off the unique feat of winning the rubber games of two different series consecutively. I hope that makes sense, because it's sorta cool.

Meanwhile, the team continues to tear the cover off the ball, giving the fans their first glimmer of false hope that this is the year they finally overcome their slow start and make a playoff run. I mean, they're beating the hell out of mediocre pitching in hitter's parks. Four regulars are hitting over .300--and one of them is Pat Burrell!

Yes, Virginia, with their offensive obsession, the Phillies belong in the American League. But as long as they are winning series and, at the same time, playing well, it doesn't matter one bit.

Also: Forbes ranks the Phillies as the 9th most valuable MLB franchise (net worth: $457 million) in their annual "Business of Baseball" feature. They also had an operating income of $11.3 million (or approximately $200K for every Ryan Howard home run) last year, so don't feel bad about sneaking your hoagies into the games.

Uncle Cholly-Isms [Bugs & Cranks]
The Business of Baseball [Forbes Magazine]

Take That, Nationals

Take a bow, Charlie!

It only took 17 games for the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies to finally get two consecutive wins and their first series victory of the season. This compares favorably to the seminal 1997 squad, which took 15 games to complete the same feat.

Apparently there was a team meeting that took place before Saturday's game that is attributed to the team's little turnaround. I'd say what the Phils needed was a nice big dose of Vitamin C:

Cole Hamels went the distance with 15 Ks on Saturday, followed by a solid performance by Freddy Garcia today. Can we stop the insanity now? Brett Myers is still this team's "ace" like Robin Williams is still "funny." Let's be real. Hamels took the No. 1 spot last August and hasn't let go since then.

It's been a euphoric weekend in general. The top third of the order is hitting again (and Pat Burrell is still over .300). Chase Utley stole a base. Tom Gordon, despite his best efforts, didn't blow a game. And most importantly, Ryan Howard returned and hit his second home run of the year. Who cares if runners are stealing on Carlos Ruiz at a rate that would alarm the MPAA?

Essentially, everyone is playing to their potential for this brief moment in time. The result: the Phillies are out of the cellar. Hopefully it'll stay that way after this week's upcoming blood feud with the gNats.

I'm shocked. There's nothing substantially negative to say right now.




Ha! Almost fooled myself there. The very same day the Phils climbed out of last place, a top of the table clash in the NL East served as a reminder of how difficult it is to overcome such a slow start. The Mets and the Braves hit the ground running and have already built a 5-game lead over Philly.

Remember when Scott Rolen said he used to get depressed playing for the Phillies because after a brief winning streak in July, he'd open the paper and discover that they were still 15 games behind?

Well, everyone should just avoid the Inquirer for the rest of the month, take a deep breath, and remember--it's just two games.

Roll of Tarpaulin, Hear My Cry

I had April 16 circled on my calendar for weeks. I had the snacks ready. I notified my roommates that the television was off limits starting at 4 PM PST. I had even cleared my work schedule (read: I left early). The occasion?

I was preparing for the first Phillies game broadcast on ESPN this season. When I'm out on the West Coast, the affiliates usually show a Dodgers or Angels game, and FOX isn't any better. It's no "game of the week" when they show the same two teams every single week. They should just call it "FSN West Weekends." So outside of satellite/pay TV (which I can't afford), the Worldwide Leader is the only hope for globe-trotting baseball expatriates in LA.

I excitedly switched the television on at approximately 3:55 PM PST, laptop in tow, hyped for a nice 3-hour liveblog. Then I saw the ticker at the bottom of the screen:

"PROGRAM ALERT: Major League Baseball, Phillies v. Mets has been postponed"

My mournful wail was heard by everyone in a 7-mile radius. Stupid Canadian moisture. I'll try once (twice?) again during finals week, though it's hard to accurately blog the ripple-like shape of Barry Bonds's enlarged skeletal plates.

UPDATE: I thought I was just grabbing an image from the Weather Channel, but apparently that Doppler Map updates in real time. That's kind of neat, so I'm keeping it there. Just trust me when I say it was raining at the scheduled game time.

Defense Is For Wussies: Phillies-Astros Series Recap

Jimmy Rollins is your National League leader in home runs.

I can't tell you how surreal it is to type that. This is a franchise with a shortstop lineage that includes names like Bowa, Jeltz, and Stocker. That just shows you how much the game has changed when the No. 6 is now a talent-rich offensive position.

The good news is that unlike the Tejadas and Michael Youngs of the world, J-Roll's still got some speed--one of his six homers was of the inside-the-park variety. Funny how nobody seems to care anymore about forcing Rollins to "hit it on the ground." Funnier how even less are worried about the effect this early hot streak is having on his mind:

"I'll take a Silver Slugger. I don't even know if the Gold Glove is an award anymore."

Yeesh. You'd think they would be a little concerned with keeping runs off the scoreboard when they're giving up almost 6 per game. Jokes are not supposed to be scary, Jimmy. Speaking of fear...

April 14: Equinophobia--fear of horses, specifically "El Caballo" Carlos Lee (one of the all-time great nicknames that are actually thinly veiled insults like "Big Donkey" Adam Dunn and "Super" Joe McEwing). Lee accounted for 3 of the Astros' 4 home runs and 7 of Brett Myers's last 9 nightmares. His ERA is approaching the number of pounds he lost in the offseason.

April 15: Onomatophobia--fear of hearing a certain name, especially in the context, "Now entering the game in the 9th inning, Tom Gordon." Perhaps I shouldn't bitch about a win, but I would not have been surprised to see the back-and-forth contest slip away from the Phils in the last inning. Plus they had double-digit LOB in both games. On the bright side, Ryan Howard is back to getting the Barry Bonds treatment.

Next Up: Two games against the Mets at Vet II. Omar Minaya is so glad he didn't stay with the Expos.

Monday's game is on national TV--can you say liveblog? (You don't actually have to. I know you're thinking it.)

Moyer's Fallen And He Can't Get Up

In a matchup of promising young arms today, the New York Mets' young phenom Tom Glavine defeated Philadelphia Phillies whiz kid Jamie Moyer.

This is the sort of matchup we should be enjoying for weeks to come, until their pensions kick in and they finally decide to enjoy themselves in that bizarro universe where a man can legitimately "retire" from his profession in his late 30s. I imagine it is a heavenly place, where Julio Franco organizes shuffleboard tournaments, Rickey Henderson teaches aquarobics, and David Wells is the spokesman for Liberty Medical Supply.

Seriously...a combined 85 years between the two starters. That would be remarkable if it weren't for the fact that Gavin Floyd was supposed to be in Moyer's position by now.

Next up on the schedule: the Houston Astros (who always seem to pop up early in the year for the Phils). The Phillies need to right the ship--fast. They'll have a good shot against the punchless 'Stros. Adam Everett is leading the offense in home runs, for Chrissakes. (That would be funnier to me if Lance Berkman wasn't my fantasy first baseman.)

Bright Spots: Whatever Jimmy Rollins is eating. He did a good job of responding to all the heckling and if the Phillies can't win enough to sustain a real rivalry with the Mets, then I have faith that J-Roll can take on the entire city of New York.

Downers: Ryan Howard, the Greatest American Hero:
Believe it or not, I'm swinging at air,
Hard to think I was MVP...
Swinging away, just a bat and a prayer,
Who could it be? Believe it or not, it's MVP!

The Tao of Darren Daulton

Where have you gone, Dutch?

I remember going to "Darren Daulton Day" at the Vet as a lad. Times were tough then: the Phillies were not only the gainful employers of Mark Lewis but also Desi Relaford. In those days, we all expected the Phils to stink.

What is occurring now is beyond all rational explanation. Stumbling to a 1-6 start for the third time in four years with this core group of players simply makes no sense. I mean, Pat Burrell is actually leading the team in average with RISP right now. The world isn't just turned upside down, it's grotesquely expanding and bursting into a million little chunks like the bad guy at the end of Live and Let Die.

That's why the Phillies need to take a drastic measure to stop the bleeding. They need somebody well-versed in the surreal nature of Philadelphia sports. They need a guide to put them on the right cosmic pathway after years of aimless astral wandering.

They need the wisdom of Darren Daulton, All-Star catcher and noted metaphysics enthusiast:

When I share my thoughts and experiences with them, I tell them there's absolutely no way their minds can comprehend what I'm trying to relate. My friends are limited to the five senses.
Translation: I played over 1,000 games for the Phillies. Then I won a World Series. In Florida. Playing in front of the type of people who didn't even have enough gas money to get to the beach. That should be enough motivation for you guys.

Reality is created and guarded by numeric patterns that overlap and awaken human consciousness, like a giant matrix or hologram.
Translation: Sabermetrics is very, very real. Keep an eye on Cole Hamels's WHIP and realize that Ryan Howard's 155 Runs Created will be leveled somehow this year. Everybody hits. Woo-hoo.

Numbers, the language of the universe, codes of awakening -- such as 11:11, which represent twin strands of DNA about to return to balance. Eleven equals BALANCE.
Translation: Heed the example of Jimmy Rollins--hit for contact, work on defensive fundamentals, and hustle. His leadership is invaluable.

At one point everyone was against me, kind of like I'd struck out with the bases loaded. Whenever my thoughts got totally negative, it would automatically rain.
Translation: Do not worry about the booing. Rain delays and makeup doubleheaders heal all wounds.

What goes above, also goes below.
Translation: The firings of Ed Wade and David Bell were long overdue.

The universe is made of vibrating energy. When energy vibrates fast enough on our 3-D plane, matter becomes invisible.
Translation: Try the hidden-ball trick once in a while. But not when Jamie Moyer is "pitching."

The Mayan calendar stops at Dec. 21, 2012. On that day, at 11:11 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time, those who are ready to ascend will vanish from this plane of existence.
Translation: Negotiate Howard's next contract wisely. And if you haven't won anything with the same group of guys year after year, then it's obviously a personnel problem. Do not fear change.

I can't wait to disappear. I'd disappear today if I could. I just try to live in the Now.
Translation: There's always next year.

Beam Us Up, Dutchie [SI.com]

A Shortlist of Clubs That Have A Better Record Than The Phillies

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
Washington Nationals
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies/Arizona Diamondbacks

What do all those teams have in common?

They all finished last in their respective divisions in 2006.

So the Phils are off to their traditional slow start, getting swept in their first series of the year for the second year in a row. Today was a further reminder that they should have spent Adam Eaton's money keeping Randy Wolf around. The Baker Bowl's new favorite player, Braves first baseman Scott Thorman, was 1 for 4 with a 2-run double.

Bright spots: Multi-hit games for Face Utley, J-Roll, Aaron Rowand, and Pat Burrell, precisely the kind of output they need to take some pressure off the Big Guy. Also, the continued dominance of the bullpen (save for Flash Gordon and Ryan Madson). Fittingly, this was the area of the team speculated to be the weakest; the Phillies once again prove that we know nothing.

Downers: Fourteen Phillies left on base. I'm almost positive that they have the most total LOB of any franchise in MLB history. Can we get Elias Sports Bureau to research that?

T-minus two games before Ryan Howard starts getting booed (if it hasn't happened already). And say hello to another bullpen arm--a former Blue Jay....heyyy.

Gills, what did I say about more Blue Jays?

Who Is Scott Thorman?

"In answer to the blogger's question, Scott Thorman is one of our finest Canadian utility infielders in an Atlanta Braves uniform." - Sean Penn

Ryan Madson continued his streak of surrendering game-clinching extra-inning home runs today (a 3-2 loss in 11 to the Bravos) as the Phillies start 0-2 for the first time since...um...last year. And as if the sight of Edgar Renteria jacking a pair out of Vet II on Monday wasn't embarrassing enough, tonight's hero was the aforementioned and (as of yet) quite unaccomplished Mr. Thorman.

But you know what? Mad Dog's not gonna settle for being the goat every night. Right?

"I just feel bad for my teammates in letting them down. Hopefully, this is the last time I do it this season."

Glad to see some accountabil...wait a second. He actually said that on Monday. Yikes.

Bright spots: Cole Hamels absolutely dealing (in a non-criminal way) for 7 innings with 8 Ks. Carlos Ruiz(!) collecting his first homer of the year. The Phils' bats waking up a bit late in the game.

Downers: The "Phillie Killer"--the marginal player who suddenly thrives when playing against Philadelphia--is alive and well. Thorman is well on his way to joining the likes of Jeff Conine and Mike Mordecai.

Let's try nailing one down tomorrow, 'kay guys?

Unreasonable Doubt: The 2007 Philadelphia Phillies

One time, on an installment of "Battle of the Jaywalk All-Stars," Jay Leno posed the following question to his collection of pathetic humanoids: "What is the 'City of Brotherly Love'?"

The first contestant stammered, "Texas?" (I swear I did not make that up). The next contestant replied with absolute certainty, "San Francisco, because, well...you know."

Now, this man's answer was completely wrong and his reasoning slightly offensive. But if his sentiment was applied to, say this year's Phillies squad, I understand it wholeheartedly.

I've never been more excited to see a Phillies team start a season; even more excited than the season Jim Thome came to town. I get the sense that a lot of Phillies fans feel something similar. For many of us, this is a frightening, alien emotion--optimism. But believe me when I say that the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies have 90-win potential, a milestone they haven't reached that 1993 dream (fluke?) season. And after four seasons of 85, 88, 86, and 86 wins (and 12, 2, 10, and 15 games out of first place, respectively), something has to give.

The upgrades to third base, catcher, and (especially) the rotation are surely enough to nab the wild card from the Braves or Marlins or Padres. Right?

Right? Let's break it down:

The Infield: From a popularity standpoint, Mike Lieberthal was a big loss. It also was a crippling blow to the team's overall Jewishness. But from a baseball standpoint, it was about time to recognize that the Law of Diminishing Returns was taking its toll Lieby (but I wish him the best with the Dodgers, Mazel Tov!). Big props to Pat Gillick for getting Rod Barajas on board to help with my nightmares about the Carlos Ruiz Experiment. I only get the terrors every third night now.

Who's on first? Well, I've heard that this guy is pretty good. Not too much else on him out there, though. Third base should be ably filled by Wes Helms. He's not exactly sneaky good, but he's sneaky above-average, especially when he gets to play.

The tandem of Chase "Face" Utley and Jimmy Rollins up the middle is now up there with Rocky, Pat's/Geno's, and parking your car in the middle turning lane as a South Philadelphia institution. Do not question it. Bask in its glory.

Overall, a defensive improvement mostly by subtraction of Lieby and David Bell (soon to join Mike Morse and Alex Sanchez on the Really? They Did Steroids? And It Was Supposed to Help? All-Stars).

The Outfield: Even if he decides to get rip-roaring drunk in Independence Hall and piss on Ben Franklin's glass armonica, Aaron Rowand will still be loved by Phillies fans until the day he dies. That's what a little hustle will do for you. (Are you listening, Bobby Abreu?) Realistically, the Phillies need him to stay healthy for a full season if possible...or do they? More on that later. Solid glove, decent range in center, and a lifetime 7-hole hitter.

Oh, hey Pat Burrell. You're still here? No, I wasn't trying to sneak out. I was going to leave you a note, I swear. Um, I don't think I have time for breakfast...well, if you insist. I guess I have nothing better to do anyway. All kidding aside, he's outhomering You Know Who this spring, is still producing what you'd expect from the 5-hole (60+ homers, 200+ RBI the past two seasons combined), is not yet a terrible fielder, and called Billy Wagner a "rat" in 2005. I can overlook the disappointing performance in the clutch...for now.

And finally, Shane Victorino, the world's most unlikely ladies' man, gets a chance to play every day. He'll never be the offensive producer that Abreu was, but that's a lot to ask of anybody. Plus, he's hungry and gives the Phils a little more speed on the basepaths--good news for a station-to-station team that still plays like it's in the American League. He's come a long way since I thought that the team could save money by declaring that Victorino, Nick Punto, and Eric Valent were all the same guy and should therefore share one contract.

The Bench: I'm a man. I can admit I was wrong about Chris Coste. He started filling in at catcher and had something like three passed balls his first week. Mercifully, he's found his groove backing up that dude at first and filling in wherever he's needed. But I'm still skeptical. Bottom line, I'd be more comfortable with David Dellucci as the number-one bench guy.

Michael Bourn is a guy that I think is a real dark horse for the Phillies this year. He's been gaining big-league experience the past couple years and he's having a great spring training: batting around .280 with 8 stolen bases in the Grapefruit League, impressive when you consider that he is only getting a couple at-bats per game. Could we finally have an heir to the short-lived Rollins Steal Co.? By the way, if his defense is good enough, this is the guy I could see replacing Rowand once Aaron tries to track a fly ball all the way to Camden.

Greg Dobbs is the big story in Clearwater this spring, absolutely tearing it up after languishing in the Mariners organization. I can see Chris Snelling-type potential, but without all the brittleness. That means a lot of 7th-inning pinch hitting appearances, at best. Enjoy it while it lasts, Dobbsy!

"Everyday" Abraham Nunez probably needs a new nickname now. If Danny Sandoval ever gets his act together, Nuni won't last much longer in red pinstripes.

We only got Jayson Werth because the Dodgers were having a sale on Jasons. He will spell Burrell and maybe Rowand. He is arguably the tallest Phillie. Deal with it.

The Rotation: Wanna know the Phillies' dirty little secret? Cole Hamels is the real ace of this team. Brett Myers still ain't bad either, and I have to give him credit for losing all that weight after he could have stunt-doubled for Charlie Manuel last year.

Didn't Adam Eaton used to be the Phillies' ace of the future? He wasn't bad in San Diego, but pitching in Arlington may have warped his mind. It's not going to get any easier in the Vet II. How much are we paying him again?

Jamie Moyer is old. He's still pitching though. And it's always nice to see him make guys 20 years his junior look foolish swinging at that 65 mph change-up. Durability is the only concern here. It also is the concern for the rest of the rotation. If healthy, Freddy Garcia really improves the Phils' pitching depth, plus he looks like the Rock. Ditto Jon Lieber, except for the part about the Rock (he might also be dangled as trade bait sometime during the season).

All this means from the number two starter down, we could be a mechanical failure or pulled hamstring away from getting to know Zack Segovia and J.A. Happ a lot better. Don't be fooled: a young starting rotation isn't desirable for a team trying to make a championship run. The 2006 Tigers were the exception, not the rule.

This just makes the loss of promising "Canada" Scott Mathieson (Tommy John surgery) for the season sting even more. It also makes the loss of Randy Wolf feel like a swift kick to the balls. If I was Indiana Jones, and Wolf was the Ark of the Covenant, and the Dodgers were the U.S. Government, and Chavez Ravine was a big warehouse, now is the time that I would say, "They don't know what they've got there."

The Bullpen: These are the times that try men's souls. Realistically, it's not that bad, but it is the area of the team most in need of improvement.

We're stuck with Tom Gordon, so the earlier I come to terms with that, the happier I'll be. Antonio Alfonseca is waiting in the wings, though. I'm not sure that makes me feel any better. (And he should stay away from Ugie Urbina, lest he chop off his vestigial sixth finger with a machete.) The 8th and 9th innings should be a roller-coaster once again. It's the Phillies Way!

Geoff Geary is as much of a rock star as a middle reliever can be. Ryan "Mad Dog" Madson can do the long relief thing well enough (and be helped by Lieber/Segovia if all 6 starters are healthy).

Clay Condrey has an interesting first name and not much of a professional profile. He doesn't walk a lot of guys, but gives up a fair share of hits. Matt Smith is the most MLB-ready prize the Phillies got in the Bobby Abreu crane game, but he was a Yankees prospect. Their farm system is as barren as the LAN party room at the Playboy Mansion.

Coaching Staff/Front Office: Oh, Charlie. You were but a pawn in Ed Wade's game to bring Jim Thome to Philadelphia. But Wade was a terrible chess player and now here you are. Your dialect is incomprehensible and the way you stand clutching the dugout fence like a captive zoo animal yearning for its freedom makes me smirk. You make me pine for the days when Harry Kalas could do a play-by-play of Larry Bowa's on-field tirades. You are more Danny Ozark than Dallas Green--and we all know what happened to Ozark.

The fact that Gillick hired coaches like Jimy Williams and Davy Lopes (who is getting my vote of confidence) with prior managerial experience certainly doesn't help Manuel's case. Milt Thompson keeps the fuzzy memory of '93 alive. Rich Dubee seems like a competent guy; I just wish he moonlighted as something cool like "Pirate" Joe Kerrigan.

Pat Gillick is a rare phenomenon in Philadelphia: a well-connected GM that knows his stuff and is willing to make real personnel moves. But if he brings in another guy from Seattle or Toronto, he's on notice.

Best-Case Scenario: 90+ wins and the NL Division title (J-Roll isn't kidding around); I can't speak about the playoffs because whatever happens after the regular season is, as Billy Beane says, "f**king luck."
Worst-Case Scenario: Finishing in last place, behind the Nationals. Atlanta and Florida are good teams with almost as much talent as the Phillies--fourth place is a reality if they aren't careful. But there is no way the Nats should finish ahead of the MVP and Company; that's a guaranteed 70 wins right there.

See, I told you I was optimistic this year. Full MLB preview coming soon.