Unreasonable Doubt: The 2007 Philadelphia Phillies

One time, on an installment of "Battle of the Jaywalk All-Stars," Jay Leno posed the following question to his collection of pathetic humanoids: "What is the 'City of Brotherly Love'?"

The first contestant stammered, "Texas?" (I swear I did not make that up). The next contestant replied with absolute certainty, "San Francisco, because, well...you know."

Now, this man's answer was completely wrong and his reasoning slightly offensive. But if his sentiment was applied to, say this year's Phillies squad, I understand it wholeheartedly.

I've never been more excited to see a Phillies team start a season; even more excited than the season Jim Thome came to town. I get the sense that a lot of Phillies fans feel something similar. For many of us, this is a frightening, alien emotion--optimism. But believe me when I say that the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies have 90-win potential, a milestone they haven't reached that 1993 dream (fluke?) season. And after four seasons of 85, 88, 86, and 86 wins (and 12, 2, 10, and 15 games out of first place, respectively), something has to give.

The upgrades to third base, catcher, and (especially) the rotation are surely enough to nab the wild card from the Braves or Marlins or Padres. Right?

Right? Let's break it down:

The Infield: From a popularity standpoint, Mike Lieberthal was a big loss. It also was a crippling blow to the team's overall Jewishness. But from a baseball standpoint, it was about time to recognize that the Law of Diminishing Returns was taking its toll Lieby (but I wish him the best with the Dodgers, Mazel Tov!). Big props to Pat Gillick for getting Rod Barajas on board to help with my nightmares about the Carlos Ruiz Experiment. I only get the terrors every third night now.

Who's on first? Well, I've heard that this guy is pretty good. Not too much else on him out there, though. Third base should be ably filled by Wes Helms. He's not exactly sneaky good, but he's sneaky above-average, especially when he gets to play.

The tandem of Chase "Face" Utley and Jimmy Rollins up the middle is now up there with Rocky, Pat's/Geno's, and parking your car in the middle turning lane as a South Philadelphia institution. Do not question it. Bask in its glory.

Overall, a defensive improvement mostly by subtraction of Lieby and David Bell (soon to join Mike Morse and Alex Sanchez on the Really? They Did Steroids? And It Was Supposed to Help? All-Stars).

The Outfield: Even if he decides to get rip-roaring drunk in Independence Hall and piss on Ben Franklin's glass armonica, Aaron Rowand will still be loved by Phillies fans until the day he dies. That's what a little hustle will do for you. (Are you listening, Bobby Abreu?) Realistically, the Phillies need him to stay healthy for a full season if possible...or do they? More on that later. Solid glove, decent range in center, and a lifetime 7-hole hitter.

Oh, hey Pat Burrell. You're still here? No, I wasn't trying to sneak out. I was going to leave you a note, I swear. Um, I don't think I have time for breakfast...well, if you insist. I guess I have nothing better to do anyway. All kidding aside, he's outhomering You Know Who this spring, is still producing what you'd expect from the 5-hole (60+ homers, 200+ RBI the past two seasons combined), is not yet a terrible fielder, and called Billy Wagner a "rat" in 2005. I can overlook the disappointing performance in the clutch...for now.

And finally, Shane Victorino, the world's most unlikely ladies' man, gets a chance to play every day. He'll never be the offensive producer that Abreu was, but that's a lot to ask of anybody. Plus, he's hungry and gives the Phils a little more speed on the basepaths--good news for a station-to-station team that still plays like it's in the American League. He's come a long way since I thought that the team could save money by declaring that Victorino, Nick Punto, and Eric Valent were all the same guy and should therefore share one contract.

The Bench: I'm a man. I can admit I was wrong about Chris Coste. He started filling in at catcher and had something like three passed balls his first week. Mercifully, he's found his groove backing up that dude at first and filling in wherever he's needed. But I'm still skeptical. Bottom line, I'd be more comfortable with David Dellucci as the number-one bench guy.

Michael Bourn is a guy that I think is a real dark horse for the Phillies this year. He's been gaining big-league experience the past couple years and he's having a great spring training: batting around .280 with 8 stolen bases in the Grapefruit League, impressive when you consider that he is only getting a couple at-bats per game. Could we finally have an heir to the short-lived Rollins Steal Co.? By the way, if his defense is good enough, this is the guy I could see replacing Rowand once Aaron tries to track a fly ball all the way to Camden.

Greg Dobbs is the big story in Clearwater this spring, absolutely tearing it up after languishing in the Mariners organization. I can see Chris Snelling-type potential, but without all the brittleness. That means a lot of 7th-inning pinch hitting appearances, at best. Enjoy it while it lasts, Dobbsy!

"Everyday" Abraham Nunez probably needs a new nickname now. If Danny Sandoval ever gets his act together, Nuni won't last much longer in red pinstripes.

We only got Jayson Werth because the Dodgers were having a sale on Jasons. He will spell Burrell and maybe Rowand. He is arguably the tallest Phillie. Deal with it.

The Rotation: Wanna know the Phillies' dirty little secret? Cole Hamels is the real ace of this team. Brett Myers still ain't bad either, and I have to give him credit for losing all that weight after he could have stunt-doubled for Charlie Manuel last year.

Didn't Adam Eaton used to be the Phillies' ace of the future? He wasn't bad in San Diego, but pitching in Arlington may have warped his mind. It's not going to get any easier in the Vet II. How much are we paying him again?

Jamie Moyer is old. He's still pitching though. And it's always nice to see him make guys 20 years his junior look foolish swinging at that 65 mph change-up. Durability is the only concern here. It also is the concern for the rest of the rotation. If healthy, Freddy Garcia really improves the Phils' pitching depth, plus he looks like the Rock. Ditto Jon Lieber, except for the part about the Rock (he might also be dangled as trade bait sometime during the season).

All this means from the number two starter down, we could be a mechanical failure or pulled hamstring away from getting to know Zack Segovia and J.A. Happ a lot better. Don't be fooled: a young starting rotation isn't desirable for a team trying to make a championship run. The 2006 Tigers were the exception, not the rule.

This just makes the loss of promising "Canada" Scott Mathieson (Tommy John surgery) for the season sting even more. It also makes the loss of Randy Wolf feel like a swift kick to the balls. If I was Indiana Jones, and Wolf was the Ark of the Covenant, and the Dodgers were the U.S. Government, and Chavez Ravine was a big warehouse, now is the time that I would say, "They don't know what they've got there."

The Bullpen: These are the times that try men's souls. Realistically, it's not that bad, but it is the area of the team most in need of improvement.

We're stuck with Tom Gordon, so the earlier I come to terms with that, the happier I'll be. Antonio Alfonseca is waiting in the wings, though. I'm not sure that makes me feel any better. (And he should stay away from Ugie Urbina, lest he chop off his vestigial sixth finger with a machete.) The 8th and 9th innings should be a roller-coaster once again. It's the Phillies Way!

Geoff Geary is as much of a rock star as a middle reliever can be. Ryan "Mad Dog" Madson can do the long relief thing well enough (and be helped by Lieber/Segovia if all 6 starters are healthy).

Clay Condrey has an interesting first name and not much of a professional profile. He doesn't walk a lot of guys, but gives up a fair share of hits. Matt Smith is the most MLB-ready prize the Phillies got in the Bobby Abreu crane game, but he was a Yankees prospect. Their farm system is as barren as the LAN party room at the Playboy Mansion.

Coaching Staff/Front Office: Oh, Charlie. You were but a pawn in Ed Wade's game to bring Jim Thome to Philadelphia. But Wade was a terrible chess player and now here you are. Your dialect is incomprehensible and the way you stand clutching the dugout fence like a captive zoo animal yearning for its freedom makes me smirk. You make me pine for the days when Harry Kalas could do a play-by-play of Larry Bowa's on-field tirades. You are more Danny Ozark than Dallas Green--and we all know what happened to Ozark.

The fact that Gillick hired coaches like Jimy Williams and Davy Lopes (who is getting my vote of confidence) with prior managerial experience certainly doesn't help Manuel's case. Milt Thompson keeps the fuzzy memory of '93 alive. Rich Dubee seems like a competent guy; I just wish he moonlighted as something cool like "Pirate" Joe Kerrigan.

Pat Gillick is a rare phenomenon in Philadelphia: a well-connected GM that knows his stuff and is willing to make real personnel moves. But if he brings in another guy from Seattle or Toronto, he's on notice.

Best-Case Scenario: 90+ wins and the NL Division title (J-Roll isn't kidding around); I can't speak about the playoffs because whatever happens after the regular season is, as Billy Beane says, "f**king luck."
Worst-Case Scenario: Finishing in last place, behind the Nationals. Atlanta and Florida are good teams with almost as much talent as the Phillies--fourth place is a reality if they aren't careful. But there is no way the Nats should finish ahead of the MVP and Company; that's a guaranteed 70 wins right there.

See, I told you I was optimistic this year. Full MLB preview coming soon.