Just minutes ago, the Phils put the finishing touches on a 6-4 victory over the Braves (and by "finishing touches" I mean Brett Myers allowed a home run in the top of the ninth). Coupled with the Mets' loss, the current NL East standings look something like this:
New York Mets: 87-72
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-72
In true Philadelphia fashion, the level of the opposition has finally come down to meet the consistent slightly-past-mediocre performance of the hometown team. The Phillies haven't been in first place or in a tie for first place this late in the season since 1993. (As an aside, how much have we suffered when the answer to nearly every recent-playoffs-related Phillies trivia question is "1993"?) Hell, they haven't even been in first place in September since 2001. Keep it up, guys. We might not need the wild card after all.
I knew the Cardinals were good for something.
- Should this stalemate persist, there are about a million Rashomon-like tie-braking scenarios. The most important thing about this is that the Rockies will have the home field advantage in nearly every scenario since they've recently channeled the spirit of the 2002 A's during a convenient stretch of games against their division rivals.
How much do you think Ryan Howard and Co. would love to see that, should it come to a one-game playoff? This team is built for Coors Field--they slug the ball and playing on the road doesn't seem any different than playing at home to them. I refuse to believe that everything is actually lining up this way. I just can't believe it.
- Speaking of Howard, he's now the proud owner of the single-season strikeout record, now set at 197 punchouts. I like how it combines the excitement of Cal Ripken's consecutive game streak (where he could break his own record every day) and the white-elephantness of Reggie Sanders.
I actually like the direction this record is taking. Long gone are the days when Jose Hernandez challenged Bobby Bonds's place in baseball history. It's more like a bad-but-good record now, like how Cy Young's record number of losses attested more to his longevity than to any failings of his talent. Today's prolific whiffers actually contribute a lot of value--Howard eclipsed Adam Dunn's mark of 195. Those are two guys that just about any GM would have.
- The Chase Utley Plunk-O-Meter is now up to 24; the Phillies have collected an NL-high 85 HBP. I was told that Comcast SportsNet ran a "Chase Utley hit-by-pitch montage" during a recent Phils game. The man is earning every cent of his paycheck.
- What's most amazing to me about this particular late-season surge is that it's occurring during a very awkward time for the franchise. Aaron Rowand has one foot out the door. Uncle Charlie hasn't received an extension and isn't likely to get one unless the Phillies make noise in the playoffs. And Pat Gillick announced he'll play out the string until 2008 and then ride off into the sunset (presumably near Toronto, Seattle, or Chicago). Perhaps it's this atmosphere of impending transition that is finally providing that sense of urgency lacking from the past six seasons.
Stick around--things are about to get interesting.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Sunday, September 23, 2007
The Durbin Hypothesis
About a month ago, I really went out on a limb to profess my completely hetero-normal adoration of J.D. Durbin, everybody's nobody's favorite Phillies mop-up artist. I'm revisiting the subject because now I have conclusive evidence of a rather strange phenomenon taking effect as the Phils gallop to the end of another hard-fought pennant race.
During the past week and a half, the Phillies have won 9 of their last 11 games, swept the Mets, and inched ever so closer to clinching their first playoff appearance since Will Smith was still known as the Fresh Prince. The September stretch run has included a lot of unlikely heroes (Rod Barajas!) and grind-it-out gumption in several games that the Phils had no business winning.
But the most unlikely September hero just might be Mr. Durbin. At any given time, it seems like his presence tips the scales of luck squarely in the Phillies' favor. When the team sees him running in from the bullpen or out of the dugout, they have generally responded with a completely disproportionate effort that one would expect for a teammate who dubbed himself "the Real Deal" on his way to posting an ERA over 6.00.
And when the mysteries of the natural world have confounded mediocre minds, erudite men have always turned to science to arbitrate the boundaries of myth and fact:
The Hypothesis
If J.D. Durbin pitches in a meaningful game (against a main division or wild card rival or any game in the month of September), then the Phillies have an increased chance of achieving an improbable victory.
The Data
In September of 2007 alone, the Durbin Hypothesis has already confronted numerous test cases that indicate its veracity.
After a horrific start against Florida to begin the month, his next game against the Teal Bastards wasn't bad--an second inning marred by fielding errors was followed by a Phillies offensive surge in the third, an early indication of future September wonders. However, it was not enough to win this particular game; science cannot yet explain how Miguel Olivo hit two home runs in one game (from Abraham Nunez's concussor, no less; big Phillie Killer potential here).
Then in his last start to date--Sept. 13 against the Rockies--the wheels flew off in the first inning, with Durbin allowing 3 runs. Yet the Phillies responded with 4 runs of their own and didn't look back in a 12-4 romp over the hottest team in baseball at the moment. It was during this game that the Durbin Hypothesis began to coalesce in my mind, much like how Dr. Emmett Brown's tumble off his toilet allowed him to unlock the secrets of the Flux Capacitor.
And after moving back to the bullpen, Durbin's effectiveness as a holistic motivator has grown exponentially. He spelled Cole Hamels in an eventual 14-inning victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on the 18th (thanks to the aforementioned heroism of Barajas) and mopped up after Kyle Lohse in a 5-run late-game comeback against the Nationals this past Thursday. These are the facts, and they speak for themselves.
The Conclusion
J.D. Durbin is a terrible starting pitcher, a streaky reliever, and one hell of a good luck charm. If science has proven anything, it is that Durbin's presence as a boogeyman/magical baseball shaman could be the best shot the Phillies have at ending their playoff drought. If I were Charlie, I'd have one of my postseason roster spots already figured out.
During the past week and a half, the Phillies have won 9 of their last 11 games, swept the Mets, and inched ever so closer to clinching their first playoff appearance since Will Smith was still known as the Fresh Prince. The September stretch run has included a lot of unlikely heroes (Rod Barajas!) and grind-it-out gumption in several games that the Phils had no business winning.
But the most unlikely September hero just might be Mr. Durbin. At any given time, it seems like his presence tips the scales of luck squarely in the Phillies' favor. When the team sees him running in from the bullpen or out of the dugout, they have generally responded with a completely disproportionate effort that one would expect for a teammate who dubbed himself "the Real Deal" on his way to posting an ERA over 6.00.
And when the mysteries of the natural world have confounded mediocre minds, erudite men have always turned to science to arbitrate the boundaries of myth and fact:
The Hypothesis
If J.D. Durbin pitches in a meaningful game (against a main division or wild card rival or any game in the month of September), then the Phillies have an increased chance of achieving an improbable victory.
The Data
In September of 2007 alone, the Durbin Hypothesis has already confronted numerous test cases that indicate its veracity.
After a horrific start against Florida to begin the month, his next game against the Teal Bastards wasn't bad--an second inning marred by fielding errors was followed by a Phillies offensive surge in the third, an early indication of future September wonders. However, it was not enough to win this particular game; science cannot yet explain how Miguel Olivo hit two home runs in one game (from Abraham Nunez's concussor, no less; big Phillie Killer potential here).
Then in his last start to date--Sept. 13 against the Rockies--the wheels flew off in the first inning, with Durbin allowing 3 runs. Yet the Phillies responded with 4 runs of their own and didn't look back in a 12-4 romp over the hottest team in baseball at the moment. It was during this game that the Durbin Hypothesis began to coalesce in my mind, much like how Dr. Emmett Brown's tumble off his toilet allowed him to unlock the secrets of the Flux Capacitor.
And after moving back to the bullpen, Durbin's effectiveness as a holistic motivator has grown exponentially. He spelled Cole Hamels in an eventual 14-inning victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on the 18th (thanks to the aforementioned heroism of Barajas) and mopped up after Kyle Lohse in a 5-run late-game comeback against the Nationals this past Thursday. These are the facts, and they speak for themselves.
The Conclusion
J.D. Durbin is a terrible starting pitcher, a streaky reliever, and one hell of a good luck charm. If science has proven anything, it is that Durbin's presence as a boogeyman/magical baseball shaman could be the best shot the Phillies have at ending their playoff drought. If I were Charlie, I'd have one of my postseason roster spots already figured out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
