The Strategery of Charles F. Manuel

First things first: Charlie Manuel is a well-liked individual. Until Freddy Garcia's Jimmy Carter-esque "crisis of confidence," Manuel's players have avoided public criticism of their manager. Plus he was damn right about Garcia. The point is that there is a lot that the fans and, I suspect, even the media don't see when it comes to the way Uncle Cholly relates to his charges.

That's why it's so unfortunate that Manuel isn't such a great on-field tactician. In-game strategy is perhaps the most visible function of a big-league manager. It's also the most tangible one in the minds of the aforementioned fans and media--the decisions made in the moment, directly contributing to wins and losses are impossible to ignore. Just ask Grady Little. Nobody cares how Manuel is helping to tweak Ryan Howard's swing in BP while he continues to platoon Rod Barajas with Carlos Ruiz.

(The man does know about hitting. He is often credited with fixing Jim Thome's swing, though that may be something of a mixed blessing as Thome has mutated into a Dave Kingman-type player over the last decade. Just be careful, Ryan!)

It also doesn't help that Charlie went to the George W. Bush School of Public Speaking. I think this causes us to judge his strategic moves a little more harshly than we normally would. Tony LaRussa is an absolute putz when it comes to managerial strategy, but since he's articulate and respected for winning so many games in a weak division with juuuust enough talent, he gets a 300-page ego stroke from Buzz Bissinger.

Basically, I like to think that there are two sides to Manuel the manager. One is the private sage, a sort of offensive savant who, anywhere he goes, makes sure his team does not fail to score runs. The other is the public bumpkin, out-maneuvered by his opponents and second-guessed by an equally caustic press corps and fanbase. This season, I'm afraid that we're seeing the weaker half much more often than the stronger half.

The games on Wednesday and Thursday against the Reds presented two nearly identical situations: with the Phillies trailing late in a torrential downpour, a Phils slugger is called out on a questionable strike three. Both incidents were suspicious enough to assume the umps were fudging some calls to move the game quickly to its conclusion, or end an inning so they could award the Reds an official victory on account of the weather. Both times, the batters in question (Howard and Burrell) had their own choice words for the home plate umpire.

But neither time did Manuel, the man leading the majors in ejections, even come out of the dugout to protest. The outcome of each game was still clearly in the balance. The Phillies were risking two losses despite playing less than nine full innings each time. If that isn't a time to get in the umpire's face and, at the very least, bring attention to the officiating crew's attempts to cut corners, then I don't know what is. Even as a simple stalling tactic, an ejection has merit in this situation.

Luckily for Charlie, both situations ultimately resolved themselves in beneficent confidences of dumb luck. This guy's like a real-life Forrest Gump--a cornpone messiah, if you will. After Howard's strikeout on Wednesday, Jose Mesa gave up a homer to put the game out of reach anyway. On Thursday, Jimmy Rollins keyed the tying and winning rallies, despite Manuel waiting until the last possible moment to substitute Jayson Werth as a pinch runner for Barajas--a decision he balked at since Werth went on the DL yesterday. Turns out the Phillies didn't want to change the retroactive date to Thursday instead of Tuesday, which is the last time Werth had been in a game.

It's Jayson Werth, people. I think we'll keep the ship afloat even if he comes back a couple days later than expected.

Werth's roster replacement, the immortal Chris Coste, homered in his first plate appearance. Figures.

Group Therapy: Surviving the Sixers Draft

Billy King did an excellent job of doing what other teams' GMs told him to do at last night's NBA Draft.

Three of four Philly picks were flipped to other teams shortly after they were selected, making the Sixers one of the busiest draft-night franchises. But considering the sheer volume of trades made annually, the NBA Draft hits its "crapshoot phase" somewhere between picks 20 and 25. Methinks it could be a lot of sound and fury when the foreigners start going like ham sandwiches at a hobo convention.

The Philadelphia 76ers 2007 draft, more or less as I saw it:

Pick #12: The only guy the Sixers picked and kept was Georgia Tech product Thaddeus Young, kinda surprising with Julian Wright and Al Thornton still available (and, sadly, one pick too late for Acie Law). I liked this decision the more I thought about it since Thornton went to an institution that awarded a degree to this individual and both Thornton and Wright have been hyped up the wazoo. Never underestimate a smart(er) person with something to prove. Plus he reminds me of the last famous Thaddeus in Pennsylvania; no matter what Young's political affiliation is, a Radical Republican reference must be worked into his nickname.

Pick #21: Daequan Cook was kind of a puzzling selection here, even if you somehow believe ESPN's graphic that has Iguodala at shooting guard and Korver at forward in Philly's "starting lineup." Cook was then humorously traded for the guy picked one spot ahead of him by Miami, Jason Smith. And I wondered why the Heat were a mess. Smith, meanwhile, has the potential to develop into a much-needed presence on the boards, having recorded double-digit rebounds in the last eight consecutive games of last season (and in 18 games overall).

Pick #30: Right before this pick was made, Ric Bucher disclosed the full terms of the Cook-Smith deal--Miami not only gets Cook, but also cash and a 2009 second-round pick as well. I can see throwing in a few bucks to sweeten the deal, but who the hell also throws in a pick to get a guy who went all of one spot ahead of your own. I half-expected Billy King to hold up a newspaper describing the deal today and proclaim "Peace in our time."

Literally ten seconds after this happens, the Sixers pick Petteri Koponen, a 19-year-old who led his team to the Finnish League championship last year. Writing that last clause still makes me cringe. Experiencing it in real-time was far worse, a viciously delivered one-two punch. I felt like I just got out of the shower with nothing to dry myself but a hand towel, then discover that it's really John Candy's XXL underpants, a la Steve Martin in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles.

Pick #38: As if there were some draft gods punishing the Sixers for their ignominious flop at the first round's finish line, Nick Fazekas and Glen "Big Baby" Davis go off the board at 34 and 35. Philly picks the vowel-averse Kyrylo Fesenko until shipping him to Utah for the 55th pick, Providence's Herbert Hill. When I think about it, Utah could have been behind both of those selections. Both fit the Jazz's draft pattern: the white foreigner or the inoffensively-named guy from a non-marquee school (Dee Brown notwithstanding). The Sixers also get mysterious "additional considerations" in this trade. I speculate that this could be anything from Mormon Tabernacle Choir Tickets to Andrei Kirilenko.

Mercifully, there is another trade announcement between #30 and #38: Koponen to Portland for cash money and 2007 SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars. Excuse me while I put on this mask, Paul Allen.

A really, really weird draft for the Sixers when all things are considered. The question now is what to do with all of these prospects. None of the picks were traded for veteran help as I had speculated, and there's no way that Philly's opening night roster includes four rookies. There's still time to deal, though, and I'm still nowhere near as depressed as Simmons.

But that, I fear, isn't much of a feat these days.

The Numbers Lie: J.C. Romero Edition

My initial reaction to the signing of J.C. Romero to a Phillies minor league contract was along the lines of, "Hey, last time I heard about him, he was actually good!" Romero was a mainstay of my fantasy teams before we came to our senses and stopped giving out points for Holds.

A guy who was a star middle reliever in Minnesota not too long ago and a member of a winning 'pen this year is a godsend to the Philadelphia bullpen, right?

Right?

"Romero, who was released June 18, went 1-0 with a 3.15 earned run average in 23 appearances this season for Boston,"

Yes! I knew it. Are the Sox that rich with talent that they can afford to let this guy get away?

"but those numbers are deceiving."

Uh-oh.

"He allowed 24 hits and 15 walks in 20 innings. Opponents hit .308 against him.

'His command had not been great,' Amaro said. 'He had more walks than strikeouts [11], but our reports on him are pretty good as far as his stuff is concerned. It's a matter of him getting back to his old form, hopefully.'"

So he's basically a sieve right now. But at least his "stuff" is good, so get a good look at that gorgeous breaking ball before somebody rips it down the right field line.

Romero hasn't actually thrown since early June, when Boston first designated him for assignment, hence his placement on the Phils' rookie league team. With the current status of the Phillies bullpen--primarily the breakdown of Geoff Geary after pitching 90+ innings last season and on a 75-inning pace for this year--I'm guessing it won't be too long before Romero gets his shot at being the Man in the Middle.

Hey, it could be worse.

Team Is Hoping Romero Can Help [Philly.com]

Rocky Now Officially Better Than Indiana Jones

The American Film Institute updated their ten-year-old list of the 100 "greatest" American films of all time this past Wednesday night. While this apparently wasn't enough time to recognize some excellent movies of a recent vintage (really, no Brokeback? No Fight Club? No Spider-Man?), several films benefited from a re-evaluation.

Rocky jumped up an astonishing 21 slots to #57, just one spot behind Jaws. It's hard to invest a lot of credibility in a list that ranks Tootsie ahead of A Clockwork Orange, but this is quite an upset for the Italian Stallion. Stallone's feel-good masterpiece is often cited as one of the "worst" Oscar winners for Best Picture, the film's critical memory stuck in a perpetual 1976 of long gas lines, political malaise, and bicentennial ephemera.

But its popular memory? That's a completely different story. Perseverance never goes out of style. They can make an uber-depressing movie about Tom Hanks getting fired and dying because he has AIDS, call the damn thing Philadelphia, and they still can't remove the image of Rocky flattening Apollo Creed with a big left hook from people's minds. The city and the fictional fighter are inextricably linked forever. And with a list like this, that's all that matters. Rocky still goes the distance today.

(Bonus: The Sixth Sense appears at #89, complete with a wistful M. Night Shyamalan soundbite, and The Philadelphia Story clocks in at #44. Ask your grandpa about that one.)

Phillies Notes: A Family Affair

Is there such a thing as a two-game sweep in a three-game series? The Phillies were lucky to get out of Cleveland with one win. Pitching was subpar for all three games (especially the horrendous bullpen) and though they scored some runs, a diet of three straight lefties had the Fightings taking a lot of awfully ugly swings.

One of the few enjoyable subplots was following the performance of the high number of former Phillies on the current Indians roster at the beginning of the series. Pat Burrell's former fishing buddy, Jason Michaels, was the only guy who really torched the Phils, going 5-10 with a homer and 3 RBI. Maybe he heard about Pat's engagement.

Aaron Fultz also pitched a couple innings, didn't give up any runs, and somehow continues to avoid injury with that violent-looking delivery of his.

On the flip side, David Dellucci proved he was an "everyday player" by blowing out a hammy while running to first base. This being the Phillies, he still beat the throw. And Roberto Hernandez played himself all the way to the minors on Tuesday. Sadly, Paul Byrd and his forehead did not make an appearance.

To recap: five little Indians who played for Philadelphia on Monday; only three left by Thursday. You're welcome, Cleveland.

- Good riddance to interleague play! The Phillies escaped with a winning record for once (8-7), but I'm sure they wouldn't be sad to see it go. After the Expos left Montreal, Toronto became Philly's "natural rival." With Baltimore, there used to be a little juice to the games, but Phillies-Blue Jays has all the spark of Padres-Mariners. It's pretty depressing.

And with the exception of the White Sox, the AL Central just destroyed the Phils--even the Royals.

- Goodtime Charlie got ejected again on Sunday, his league-leading fifth ejection of the year. The Phillies, unsurprisingly, also lead the majors in ejections as a team.

This was always one of my pet peeves about Larry Bowa. If you whine and yell all the time, umpires are going to remember that. Manuel was supposed to be a change of pace--a guy who might actually endear himself to a few of the guys in blue. Now it seems like he'll get himself thrown out because he doesn't know what else to do.

- The Road to 10K continues, the magic number dwindling to 9. And despite all of the turmoil of the past week--the schizoid play, the bullpen implosions, the suspensions--only two games separate the Mets, Braves, and Phillies in the NL East.

Whatta game, folks.

Billy King Works Out Yi Jianlian, Pulls Brain Muscle

Though most of mock draft scenarios I've seen have 20-year-old Chinese phenom Yi Jianlian off the board well before the 12th pick, the Sixers brass couldn't contain their excitement after seeing him practice yesterday. In Los Angeles.

And even though the phrase "Chinese phenom" should at least trigger circumspection, Billy King is highly impressed:

“[At the workout] you are able to see a lot more things that you aren’t able to see in a game,” King said. “He was shooting three pointers, handling the basketball, just seeing him run…. We were able to see him do some of the same tests that we do for guys, they did for us here like the shuttle runs, the sprints, the vertical jumps and those things.”

Oh, I get it. Apparently Yi never dribbles, runs, or shoots threes during an actual game. But at least he passes the President's Physical Fitness Test with flying colors. Good scouting, guys. Quite a trip to see a guy whom the Chicago Bulls, of all people, are reportedly doing everything short of reprising the "baptism scene" from The Godfather to trade up for.

And from the Danny Almonte Files come accusations that Chinese authorities fudged Yi's age to preserve his eligibility in junior competitions, echoing doubts that have been expressed as far back as 2003. Personally, it's hard for me to believe that a guy could be playing on an Olympic basketball team at the same age when I was learning how to parallel park.

Sixers Work Out Yi Jianlian [Official Site]
The Next Yao Ming? [Time Magazine]

NBA Finals Wrap-Up: Wither the Eastern Conference?

There is an argument that posits the dilution of the Post-Jordan NBA Eastern Conference, supported by the fact that from 1999-2006, the Western Conference took home the championship six out of eight times. What's interesting about this streak is that before this year's slaughter, only once did the West sweep the East in the Finals--the Lakers over the Nets in '02. And the West appears more dominant in the earlier half of their run than in recent years, again with the exception of 2007.

For teams in the East, the offseason period is often characterized by doom and gloom. Every year, prognosticators choose one or two sad-sack squads in the Eastern Conference as playoff dark horses simply because of the perception that playing basketball in the East is like playing basketball in the CYO. I even find myself subscribing to this theory, sometimes leaning on it to support my pronouncements of the Sixers' impending return to winning basketball. The problem is, I don't want to believe a theory that says my team is going to improve simply because the competition gets worse. So what's the dealio, yo?

After some consideration, 2007 is an aberration for three reasons:

1) I think our memories get overwhelmed by the incessant hyping of everything in the here and now. I was genuinely surprised when I was reminded that the 2005 Spurs-Pistons Finals went the full seven games before San Antonio's eventual triumph. And it wasn't too long ago that a healthy Dwayne Wade (with Shaq, but a "regression to the mean" Shaq, not the dominant Shaq of the Lakers three-peat) had people buzzing about an Eastern renaissance.

2) The traditional Eastern powerhouses--make that the Eastern powerhouse--showed signs of decline, but people were too reluctant to acknowledge it. The Pistons have been the standard-bearer for quality basketball in the East for the past three or four seasons. We're accustomed to Detroit gallantly riding in at the end of the season to provide the East with at least a fighting chance.

When the Cavs beat the Pistons in the conference finals, commentators made the assumption that there was a new Eastern elite. This couldn't be more wrong. The Eastern Conference Finals was a comedy of errors that showed just how flawed each team was in their current makeup. Cleveland's woeful finals performance after a supposedly significant series victory has a lot of people judging the track record of the East, specifically the 2004-2006 period, retroactively.

3) The potential quality of the Eastern half of the playoffs was damaged by events in the last two months of the season. The Chicago Bulls, perhaps the most complete team in the East, barely missed winning their division and as a result, tumbled to the fifth seed in the conference: Detroit had just enough left in the tank to defeat them. You play that series a round later and you will get a different result. The Washington Wizards looked like a threat until two of their three big stars, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, went down with season-ending injuries. The Celtics and the Bucks were doing everything in their power to lose and increase their odds of landing a top-three draft pick, giving a boost to even the most mediocre of Eastern playoff contenders.

There are other ancillary reasons as well (younger teams, poorer coaching, etc.), but it doesn't change the fact that the Eastern Conference is a scapegoat for the lack of excitement in this year's finals. Fans howl about the competitive balance in the NBA being out of whack, but the NBA is digging its own grave here. Simmons has a point when he tries to think of ways to make the playoff structure better reflect who the best teams actually are in any given year. However, it does little to correct the competitive imbalance in the NBA that almost everyone seems to agree upon. A playoff tournament to gain entry to a playoff tournament? If anything, too many teams make the playoffs from either conference, thus magnifying the gap in quality between the best and worst teams.

I scoff at the notion that 2007 is the year the West Took Over...Again. 2007 is the year the East Was Unlucky.

And luck is a mighty fickle thing.

Time To Fix the NBA Playoffs [Bill Simmons]