The Durbin Hypothesis

About a month ago, I really went out on a limb to profess my completely hetero-normal adoration of J.D. Durbin, everybody's nobody's favorite Phillies mop-up artist. I'm revisiting the subject because now I have conclusive evidence of a rather strange phenomenon taking effect as the Phils gallop to the end of another hard-fought pennant race.

During the past week and a half, the Phillies have won 9 of their last 11 games, swept the Mets, and inched ever so closer to clinching their first playoff appearance since Will Smith was still known as the Fresh Prince. The September stretch run has included a lot of unlikely heroes (Rod Barajas!) and grind-it-out gumption in several games that the Phils had no business winning.

But the most unlikely September hero just might be Mr. Durbin. At any given time, it seems like his presence tips the scales of luck squarely in the Phillies' favor. When the team sees him running in from the bullpen or out of the dugout, they have generally responded with a completely disproportionate effort that one would expect for a teammate who dubbed himself "the Real Deal" on his way to posting an ERA over 6.00.

And when the mysteries of the natural world have confounded mediocre minds, erudite men have always turned to science to arbitrate the boundaries of myth and fact:

The Hypothesis
If J.D. Durbin pitches in a meaningful game (against a main division or wild card rival or any game in the month of September), then the Phillies have an increased chance of achieving an improbable victory.

The Data
In September of 2007 alone, the Durbin Hypothesis has already confronted numerous test cases that indicate its veracity.

After a horrific start against Florida to begin the month, his next game against the Teal Bastards wasn't bad--an second inning marred by fielding errors was followed by a Phillies offensive surge in the third, an early indication of future September wonders. However, it was not enough to win this particular game; science cannot yet explain how Miguel Olivo hit two home runs in one game (from Abraham Nunez's concussor, no less; big Phillie Killer potential here).

Then in his last start to date--Sept. 13 against the Rockies--the wheels flew off in the first inning, with Durbin allowing 3 runs. Yet the Phillies responded with 4 runs of their own and didn't look back in a 12-4 romp over the hottest team in baseball at the moment. It was during this game that the Durbin Hypothesis began to coalesce in my mind, much like how Dr. Emmett Brown's tumble off his toilet allowed him to unlock the secrets of the Flux Capacitor.

And after moving back to the bullpen, Durbin's effectiveness as a holistic motivator has grown exponentially. He spelled Cole Hamels in an eventual 14-inning victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on the 18th (thanks to the aforementioned heroism of Barajas) and mopped up after Kyle Lohse in a 5-run late-game comeback against the Nationals this past Thursday. These are the facts, and they speak for themselves.

The Conclusion
J.D. Durbin is a terrible starting pitcher, a streaky reliever, and one hell of a good luck charm. If science has proven anything, it is that Durbin's presence as a boogeyman/magical baseball shaman could be the best shot the Phillies have at ending their playoff drought. If I were Charlie, I'd have one of my postseason roster spots already figured out.