The Numbers Lie: Kyle Kendrick Edition

A recent Philly.com article carried the headline, "Kendrick, Phils can't catch a break"

First of all, the Phillies already caught the break of the decade, and his name is Ryan Howard.

Second of all, it's kind of ludicrous to think that the Phillies can catch a break, let alone be deserving of one. They have great talent, but are they a good team? Do they play consistent baseball, avoiding mental mistakes and keeping an even psychological keel?

I would say, up to this point, the answer is an emphatic "no."

It's also intriguing that the mentality of many Phillies beat writers does not associate the young Kyle Kendrick with the search for these incredibly elusive "breaks." The headline shows that they consider him, like the team, to be an entity whose potential performance is not truly reflected in the actual data.

Maybe that 2-1 loss to Milwaukee last Friday really didn't do Kendrick justice. Perhaps it was another stroke of bad luck in what feels like an usually unlucky second half. Yet the organization feels it can still compete for a spot in the postseason, and Kyle Kendrick is one of the reasons why.

They say luck favors the prepared mind, and somewhere in the Phils' plans there was a place for Kyle Kendrick instead of prospects like Matt Maloney and Mike Dubee. Do the Phillies really know what they've got or has Kendrick just been a plum lucky pitcher?

(Before I begin, I'll add a brief caveat that my doubts about J.C. Romero have been dead wrong so far--0.77 ERA as a Phillie, 12 K, 13 BB but only 5H in 11.2 IP)

One thing is certain: Kyle Kendrick is way better than Freddy Garcia, the man he replaced in the Phillies rotation. The problem is that the Phillie Phanatic also would have been a better option than Garcia. He could have even fit into Garcia's uniform.

Some of Kendrick's stats have been solid: 3.88 ERA (which is actually a bit better than "solid"), 1.29 WHIP, a decent 1.56 K-to-BB ratio, a 1.44 groundball-to-flyball ratio that puts him among the top 30 starters in the league. And I was going to accuse him of Gopheritis until I found that he's only projected for 23 HRs over a 162-game season (for comparison, Cole Hamels has already surrendered 24 longballs). These are the numbers that make him a fantastic example of player development to the tune of 18 PRAR (Pitcher Runs Above Replacement; or how many runs a pitcher saves for his team per year above a player emulating the league average) so far this season.

However, some of Kendrick's stats show cause for concern: only 25 K (though not always indicative of trouble; see: Chien-Ming Wang), 65 H in 62.2 IP, a .327 opponents' batting average, all nicely capped by 9.34 hits per 9 innings. Furthermore, his sabermetric profile isn't all that impressive. Jon Lieber had a 16 PRAR before his season-ending injury, Jamie Moyer's PRAR is 30, and Kyle Lohse has a surprisingly good 38 PRAR despite an ERA over 4.50. Hell, even J.D. Durbin (who is dangerously close to becoming a Baker Bowl mascot of sorts) isn't too far behind with a 10 PRAR. So with apologies to Mr. Durbin, is it too early to be calling the 22-year-old Kendrick the Real Deal?

Unfortunately, I'm going to have to pull a Joe Morgan and tell you that it's too soon to say until we see how Kendrick goes about his business on a day-to-day basis and so forth. I vacillate only because the signals are so mixed and the player so young. He may look like a great No. 2 starter behind Hamels, but I think it's closer to the truth to say that he's part of a No. 3 triumvirate with Moyer and Lohse.

Kendrick does have a silver lining or, more accurately, an indication that he's probably not the next Brandon Duckworth. He's only averaging about 26.3 batters faced per start despite pitching at least an average of six innings, and averages slightly over 3.5 pitches per batter faced. He's giving up his share of hits and struggling to punch guys out, but he's already learned to let his defense support him and be stingy with his pitch counts. He is showing some much-needed promise emerging from a farm system with few stellar pitching prospects.

Maybe the Phillies know what they are doing after all. I'll tell them right after they finish writing this week's $150,000 check for Adam Eaton.