Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Unbalanced Schedule My Ass

Remember how the unbalanced schedule was supposed to make the pennant races more exciting? An abundance of games, it was posited, against division rivals in the first and final months of the season would make the races more competitive (never mind the hometown fans who might want to see some of the other out-of-towners more than once a year).

The problems with this approach are manifold. What do you do with a division like the NL Central, where half the teams can barely tie their cleats, let alone defeat a decent baseball team? How do you deal with the mathematical hiccups that result from divisions that don't have the same number of teams as the others? And I don't even want to talk about the havoc that interleague play wreaks here.

MLB has really backed themselves into a corner here. If it wasn't for the invention of the Wild Card--which is what really makes most September games matter--I'm sure more people would be clamoring about this. As it stands, I'm going to make the non-researched claim that the unbalanced schedule has had a negligible effect on division races since its implementation. There are a few prominent exceptions (see: the 2006 AL Central), but they are just that--exceptions (plus, the Tigers made it to the Series with the Wild Card anyway).

Take a gander at the last two weeks of the schedule for the Phillies and their top three Wild Card rivals (excluding yesterday):

Philadelphia: 2 @ STL, 4 @ WSH, 3 vs. ATL, 3 vs. WSH

Los Angeles: 3 @ COL, 3 @ ARI, 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. SF

Colorado: 3 vs. LA, 3 @ SD, 3 @ LA, 3 vs. ARI

San Diego: 3 vs. PIT, 3 vs. COL, 3 @ SF, 4 @ MIL

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong...

Admittedly, the Rockies have the toughest road ahead (but who outside of Denver believes in them anyway?), followed by the Dodgers. That's good news for the Phils, who also have a relatively easy schedule left--along with a history of playing down to their opponents. St. Louis is an enigma, and Atlanta is still in our heads after all these years. And those Nationals games, especially the ones on the road, are not gimmes (like, say, a game against the Giants). The Gnats have a fair chance at spoiling the Phils' season and if they do, their fans might have real evidence of the supposed D.C.-Philly "rivalry."

But getting to the point of all my bitching about schedules--none of this might not even matter. The Padres have seven games left against non-division opponents: one against a hopeless bottom-feeder and the other against a fading team whose weaknesses were apparent even back in June. They get to play their toughest series in that cow pasture they call "home field." And at a time when the races are supposed to get much more localized, the Pads don't even play the Dodgers!

This fact alone might be the worst news for the Phillies faithful, who have the right to be pissed when the concept of the unbalanced schedule isn't being adhered to properly. The luck of having your three main rivals all the same division isn't worth anything if you can't get them to beat up on each other. Having the NL East title still in reach is some consolation, but the schedule has ensured that the Phils are going to have to play near-flawless ball to make up even those slim 1.5 and/or 2.5 game margins.

Unbalanced schedule my ass.

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