Phillies Notes: Win Just 20 For the Gipper

While puttering around recently on the Baseball Almanac, I was dismayed to learn (not shocked--we are never shocked by bad news here) that the last Phillies pitcher to win at least 20 games in a season was Steve Carlton, who last pulled it off in 1982. Lefty accomplished this feat six times and even won an astonishing 27 games in 1972.

But since '82? Nothing. John Denny won 19 in 1983 and Curt Schilling sniffed at it a couple times, but it's mostly been a pipe dream since then. And you know something? It really doesn't have a lot to do with the pitchers themselves.

Sure, the Phillies have had some horrendous starters over the years (paging Matt Beech), but wins are an immensely overrated stat when used to evaluate pitching. This is Moneyball 101. Wins are much more reflective of the potency of the lineup supporting the pitcher, which tends to make more sense considering the rather anemic offense of the late 1980s and 1990s Phillies (even that 1993 squad lacked a true slugger). What I'm saying is that once you get Jim Thome, then it makes Kevin Millwood look that much better.

What's notable about this year's squad is that they already have two starters that have won 20 games in the past--Jon Lieber and Jamie Moyer--yet have never seemed like terribly gifted pitchers. No, if anyone is going to win 20 anytime soon, it will be Cole Hamels. Watching the Phils-Giants game on Sunday, I saw a performance even better than his line indicated (5 runs, some of them the product of poor fielding). His stuff simply baffles hitters. And with the kind of run support he gets--the kind that allows Adam Eaton to have a winning record despite an 8.18 ERA--twenty wins is not out of the realm of possibility. Even if Ryan Howard continues to resemble 2003 Pat Burrell.

Actually, Ryan, I take that back. That's not something I wish on anybody except Scott Thorman.